Research output of the NLP::FIN::LAB

Working Papers

Counterparty Risk and the Establishment of the NYSE Clearinghouse, (Asaf Bernstein, Eric Hughson and, Marc Weidenmier). [PDF]
Abstract
The recent financial crisis suggests that counterparty risk in markets without multilateral net settlement through a centralized clearing party (CCP) may pose a threat to financial stability. We study the effect of clearing on counterparty risk by examining a unique historical experiment, the establishment of a clearinghouse on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in 1892. During this period, the largest NYSE stocks were also listed on the Consolidated Stock Exchange (CSE), which already had a clearinghouse netting trades. Using identical securities on the CSE as a control, we find that the introduction of netting on the NYSE reduced the average counterparty risk premium by 24bps and volatility by 26-42bps. Prior to clearing, shocks to overnight lending rates reduced the value of stocks on the NYSE, relative to identical stocks on the CSE, but this was no longer true after the establishment of clearing. We also show that at least ½ of the average reduction in counterparty risk is driven by a reduction in contagion risk through spillovers in the trader network. Our results indicate that clearing can cause a significant improvement in market stability and value through a reduction in network contagion and the counterparty risk premium.
Outsourcing through Purchase Contracts and Firm Capital Structure, (Katie Moon and Gordon Phillips). [PDF]
Abstract
We examine firm and industry characteristics associated with outsourcing and the relation between outsourcing and capital structure using a unique database of purchase contracts for a measure of firm outsourcing. We document firm, industry, and supplier characteristics that are significantly associated with outside purchase contracting. We find that supplier competition and distance impact the use of purchase contracts, along with firm growth options and value-added per worker. Examining the outside purchase contract and leverage decisions using simultaneous equations, we find that firms in competitive industries, with more growth options, that have suppliers farther away with highercompetition are more likely to use purchase contracts but have less leverage. Our results are consistent with firms that choose to use purchase contracts using less leverage to mitigate the potential loss of relationship-specific investments of contacting parties that can occur with financial distress or bankruptcy.
Friends during Hard Times: Evidence from the Great Depression, (Diego Garcia, Tania Babina, and Geoff Tate). [PDF]
Abstract
We test whether network connections to other firms through executives and directors increase value by exploiting differences in survival rates in response to a common negative shock. We find that firms that had more connections on the eve of the 1929 financial market crash have higher 10-year survival rates during the Great Depression. Consistent with a financing channel, we find that the results are particularly strong for small firms, private firms and firms with small cash holdings relative to the sample median prior to the shock. Moreover, connections to cash-rich firms are stronger predictors of survival, overall and among financially constrained firms. Because of the greater segmentation of markets in the 1920s and 1930s than in modern data samples, we can mitigate the potential endogeneity of network connections at the time of the shock by exploiting variation in the local demand for directors’ services. We also find evidence that the information that flows through network links increases the odds that a firm will be acquired.
Costs of Rating-Contingent Regulation: Evidence from the Establishment of “Investment Grade”. (Asaf Bernstein) [PDF]
Abstract
I assess unintended consequences for non-financial firms of rating-contingent regulation, without confounding factors prevalent in modern markets, by examining the 1936 unexpected inception of federal bank investment restrictions for bonds rated below investment grade. Using a difference-in-differences design, I find a persistent rise in speculative bond yields, even comparing bonds within the same firm, and declines in equity value and idiosyncratic volatility for firms reliant on external speculative debt financing. The increase in yields is lower for bonds near investment grade suggesting firms reduce volatility and deviate from otherwise optimal behavior to avoid higher funding costs from the regulation.
The kinks of financial journalism. (Diego Garcia) [PDF]
Abstract
This paper studies the content of financial news as a function of past market returns. As a proxy for media content we use positive and negative word counts from general financial news columns from the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times. Our empirical analysis allows us to discriminate between theories that predict hyping good stock performance to those that emphasize negative news. The evidence is conclusive: negative market returns taint the ink of typewriters, while positive returns barely do. Given how pervasive our estimates are across multiple time periods, subject to different competitive pressures in the market for news, we conclude our results are driven by demand considerations.
Innovation in Mature Firms: A Text-Based Analysis. (Tony Cookson, Gustaf Bellstam, and Sanjai Bhagat) [PDF]
Abstract
We develop a new measure of innovation using a textual analysis of analyst reports. Our text-based measure gives a useful description of innovation by mature firms with and without patenting and R&D. For non-patenting firms, the measure identifies firms that adopt novel technologies and innovative business practices (e.g., Walmart’s cross-geography logistics). For patenting firms, the text-based measure strongly correlates with valuable patents, which likely capture true innovation. The text-based measure robustly forecasts greater firm performance and growth opportunities for up to four years, and these value implications hold just as strongly for non-patenting firms.
Do Economists Swing for the Fences after Tenure?. (Jonathan Brogaard, Joseph Engelberg and Edward Van Wesep) [PDF]
Abstract
Using a sample of all academics who pass through top 50 economics and finance departments from 1996 through 2014, we study whether the granting of tenure leads faculty to pursue riskier ideas. We use the extreme tails of ex-post citations as our measure of risk and find that both the number of publications and the portion consisting of “home runs” peak at tenure and fall steadily for a decade thereafter. Similar patterns hold for faculty at elite (top 10) institutions and for faculty who take differing time to tenure. We find the opposite pattern among poorly-cited publications: their numbers rise steadily both pre- and post-tenure.

Publications

Sentiment during recessions, (Diego Garcia). Journal of Finance, 2013, 68(3), 1267-1300. [PDF]
Abstract
This paper studies the effect of sentiment on asset prices during the 20th century (1905-2005). As a proxy for sentiment, we use the fraction of positive and negative words in two columns of financial news from the New York Times. The main contribution of the paper is to show that, controlling for other well-known time-series patterns, the predictability of stock returns using news' content is concentrated in recessions. A one standard deviation shock to our news measure during recessions changes the conditional average return on the DJIA by twelve basis points over one day.
The Offshore Return Premium, (Gerard Hoberg and Katie Moon). Management Science, forthcoming. [PDF]
Abstract
We use 10-K filings to construct novel text-based measures of the extent to which U.S. firms are exposed to three offshore activities: the sale of output, purchase of input, and ownership of producing assets. Our main result is that selling output abroad is associated with higher stock returns, especially when output is sold to more central nations in the real trade network. In contrast, offshore input serves as a hedge. Our findings are consistent with the conclusion that aggregate quantity shocks are the primary source of the return premium we document in the global trade network.
Offshore Activities and Financial vs Operational Hedging , (Gerard Hoberg and Katie Moon). Journal of Financial Economics, August 2017, Vol. 125 (2), 217-244 [PDF]
Abstract
A key question is why many multinational firms forgo foreign exchange derivative (FX) hedging and instead use operational hedging. We propose an explanation based on illiquidity and the unique advantages of operational hedges. We use 10-K filings to construct dynamically updated text-based measures of the offshore sale of output, purchase of input, and ownership of assets. We find that firms use FX derivatives when they are liquid and generally available. Otherwise, they often favor purchasing input from the same nations they sell output to, an operational hedge. Quasi-natural experiments based on new derivative product launches suggest a likely causal relation.
The JOBS Act and the Costs of Going Public , (Susan Chaplinsky, Kathleen Hanley and Katie Moon). Journal of Accounting Research, September 2017, Vol. 55 (4), 795-836. [PDF]
Abstract
We examine the effects of Title I of the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act for a sample of 312 emerging growth companies (EGCs) that filed for an initial public offering (IPO) from April 5, 2012 through April 30, 2015. We find no reduction in the direct costs of issuance, accounting, legal, or underwriting fees, for EGC IPOs. Underpricing, an indirect cost of issuance that increases an issuer’s cost of capital, is significantly higher for EGCs compared to other IPOs. More importantly, greater underpricing is present only for larger firms that are newly eligible for scaled disclosure under the Act. Overall, we find little evidence that the Act in its first three years has reduced the measurable costs of going public. Although there are benefits of the Act that issuers appear to value, they should be balanced against the higher costs of capital that can occur after its enactment.
Geographic dispersion and stock returns, (Diego Garcia and Oyvind Norli). Journal of Financial Economics, 2012, 106(3), 547-565. [PDF]
Abstract
This paper shows that stocks of truly local firms have returns that exceed the return on stocks of geographically dispersed firms by 70 basis points per month. By extracting state name counts from annual reports filed with the SEC on form 10-K, we distinguish firms with business operations in only a few states from firms with operations in multiple states. Our findings are consistent with the view that lower investor recognition for local firms results in higher stock returns to compensate investors for insufficient diversification.
Journalists and the Stock Market, (Diego Garcia, Casey Dougal, Joseph Engelberg and Christopher Parsons). Review of Financial Studies, 2012, 25(4), 639-679. [PDF]
Abstract
We use exogenous scheduling of Wall Street Journal columnists to identify a causal relation between financial reporting and stock market performance. To measure the media's unconditional effect, we add columnist fixed effects to a daily regression of excess Dow Jones Industrial Average returns. Relative to standard control variables, these fixed effects increase the R-squared by about 35 percent, indicating each columnist's average persistent "bullishness" or "bearishness." To measure the media's conditional effect, we interact columnist fixed effects with lagged returns. This increases explanatory power by yet another one-third, and identifies amplification or attenuation of prevailing sentiment as a tool used by financial journalists.
Crawling EDGAR, (Diego Garcia and Oyvind Norli). The Spanish Review of Financial Economics, 2012, 10(1), 1-10. [PDF]
Abstract
While the title may lead you to think that this paper is about spiders, it is about firms in the United States reporting relevant business information to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The paper is meant to serve as a primer for economists in the computing details of searching for information on the Internet. One important goal of the paper is to show how simple open-source computer scripts can be generated to access financial data on firms that interact with regulators in the United States.