Trading Volume and Price Variability: Evidence
on Lead-Lag Relationships from Granger-Causality Tests
Sanjai Bhagat
University of Colorado at Boulder
and
Sanjiv Bhatia
Southern Methodist University
December, 1994
Please address correspondence to: Sanjai Bhagat, Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0419. Tel. (303) 492-7821.
Abstract
This paper examines the following question: Is there a lead-lag or causal relationship between trading volume and price volatility, or do these important market variables move simultaneously? We conduct rigorous empirical tests using procedures similar to Granger causality tests and find strong evidence that price volatility causes trading volume but no evidence that trading volume causes price volatility. We find this unidirectional causality to hold unconditionally, and also after conditioning on past volume and volatility.