Trading Volume and Price Variability: Evidence on Lead-Lag Relationships from Granger-Causality Tests



Sanjai Bhagat
University of Colorado at Boulder

and

Sanjiv Bhatia
Southern Methodist University



December, 1994

Please address correspondence to: Sanjai Bhagat, Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0419. Tel. (303) 492-7821.


Abstract

This paper examines the following question: Is there a lead-lag or causal relationship between trading volume and price volatility, or do these important market variables move simultaneously? We conduct rigorous empirical tests using procedures similar to Granger causality tests and find strong evidence that price volatility causes trading volume but no evidence that trading volume causes price volatility. We find this unidirectional causality to hold unconditionally, and also after conditioning on past volume and volatility.